Blackjack offers some of the best odds in the casino. Everyone knows that already. But what does it mean to say that one casino games offers better odds than another casino game? This page goes into some detail about how to measure the odds of a casino game. Then it continues with an examination of the specifics related to the game of blackjack.
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Odds and Probability Explained
Probability is the branch of math that covers how likely it is to achieve a certain result. Any possible result can be measured as a number between 0 and 1, with a 0 meaning that it will never happen and a 1 meaning that it will always happen. It’s probably easier to think of this number as a percentage, so something with a 0% chance of happening will never happen, while something that will always happen has a probability of 100%.
If you add the probability of something happening with the probability of something not happening, you will always get a total of 100%. So it’s always possible to calculate that number backwards. For example, if you know that there is an 80% chance of something not happening, you also know that there is a 20% chance of it happening, and vice versa.
Probabilities are sometimes explained as odds. This is just a way of expressing a probability as the number of possibilities of it failing versus the number of possibilities of it succeeding. For example, if you want to express the odds of getting an ace with the next card you draw out of a fresh deck of playing cards, then you know that the odds are 12 to 1. (For every ace in the deck, there are 12 cards that are NOT aces.)
Casinos make their money by paying out wagers at odds that are less than their odds of happening. For example, on a single number bet in roulette, the odds of winning are 37 to 1. (There are 38 different numbers, and you only bet on 1 of them in this example.) But that bet only pays out at 35 to 1.
In a mathematically perfect set of spins, you’d win once and lose 37 times. If you’re betting $1 per spin, then you’ve lost $37, but you’ve won $35 the one time you got a winning spin. The casino gets the other $2, and that’s how they stay in business.
All casino games, including blackjack, work on this seemingly-simple principle. In fact, it’s relatively easy to determine a percentage of each bet that you make that the casino can expect to receive over time. This percentage is called the house edge.
In the roulette example above, the house edge is 5.26%. That’s the amount of each bet that will be lost over an infinite number of trials. Of course, in the short term, anything can (and often will) happen, but as you get closer to an infinite number of trials, the closer the results become to the mathematical expectation.
The house edge can be as high as 25% on slot machines in Nevada, or as low as 0.5% on blackjack in the same state. But achieving that 0.5% number requires a certain amount of skill and strategy. Players who just use “common sense” or who “play their hunches” face a house edge of closer to 2-4%.
Basic Strategy Is the Key to the Best Blackjack Odds
The key to maintaining the lowest possible house edge on blackjack is to use basic strategy every time you play. By doing so, you maximize your expectation and minimize the casino’s expectation. Basic strategy is the mathematically perfect play in every possible blackjack situation.
This might seem like an unearthly number of scenarios to memorize, but it’s actually easier than you think. The dealer’s upcard is limited to 10 possibilities. Your hand is limited to 20 different totals. Since many hands will be played with the same strategy as many others, memorizing basic strategy is far easier than you’d think.
Many websites and almost all blackjack books offer basic strategy charts which can help visual learners memorize the correct strategy. The conditions and house rules can affect a handful of strategy decisions, but even then, it’s a tiny percentage of the potential situations you might face. Learning one basic strategy is better than learning no basic strategy at all. In other words, don’t get hung up on making the occasional error because of local playing conditions.
Playing Conditions and Rules Variations
The other key to getting the best odds in blackjack is to make intelligent choices about which blackjack games you’ll play. The biggest variation that you need to watch out for is the payout on a natural 21. At most casinos, a natural 21 pays out at 3 to 2 odds, but you’ll often find games that pay out at 6 to 5 odds instead.
The difference in that single rules variation is tremendous. In fact, it gives the casino an additional edge of 1.39%. In most blackjack games, this doubles or even triples the house’s edge. The easiest way to avoid that additional “tax” on your game is to just say no to any blackjack game that doesn’t pay out at least 3 to 2 for a natural.
Other variations in the rules can actually improve the player’s odds. For example, a single deck blackjack game versus a game with two decks or more gives 0.48% back to the player. That’s not nearly as significant as the 1.39%, so don’t fall for the trap of playing a single deck game with a 6 to 5 payout on a natural blackjack.
Most other rules variations have smaller effects on the house edge, but they can add up quickly when combined. For example, if the dealer hits on soft 17 (instead of standing), the house gains 0.22%. But if the player is also limited to only being able to double down on 10 or 11, the house gains another 0.18%, for a total gain to the house of 0.4%.
The Effects of Card Counting on the Odds
Entire books have been written about counting cards and how it affects the player’s odds in the game of blackjack, but for the purposes of this page, I just want to explain how card counters get an edge over the casino. Suppose you found a way to get another 1-2% edge on the casino by raising your bets when you have better odds and lowering your bets when you have worse odds?
For example, if you had a deck with nothing but aces and tens in it, your chances of getting a natural (and the corresponding 3 to 2 payout) would be much greater, wouldn’t it? So it would make sense to bet more in that situation.
On the other hand, if all the aces in the deck have already been dealt, it’s impossible to get a natural, which means you should lower your bet.
It turns out that each card that’s dealt out of a blackjack show affects the odds by a certain amount. By tracking the ratio of high cards versus low cards that have already been dealt, a card counter can raise or lower her bets in order to take advantage of favorable situations.
By doing so, the counter can actually gain an edge over the casino. This is mostly the result of putting more money into action when the odds are good, but some card counters also make strategy adjustments based on their count, too.
Summary
This page provides an introduction to blackjack odds. Many other pages on this site go into more details about the rules variations that increase or decrease the odds in the players and the casinos’ favor. The most important things to remember are that you should always play using basic strategy, in order to minimize the house’s edge, and also to avoid playing 6:5 blackjack games.
What are the pros and cons of roulette versus the pros and cons of blackjack? How do these games differ, and how are they the same? Like all casino games, they have certain characteristics that hold true for every game you’ll play in a casino. But they also have significant differences, which I’ll analyze for you on this page.
Independent Events versus Deck Composition Strategies
The odds in roulette never change, no matter what happens on previous bets. If you bet on black, the odds are always either 18/38 or 18/37 that you’ll win. That’s because every spin of a roulette wheel is an independent event. Previous results don’t affect the odds on subsequent results.
This doesn’t mean that roulette gamblers understand this. Many of them stubbornly refuse to acknowledge the simple fact that it’s impossible to get an edge on roulette based on studying the results of previous spins. Martingale players take this to a systematic extreme by lowering and raising their wagers based on what happened on the last spin.
Imagine though a new roulette wheel, one in which certain numbers got filled in once they’d been hit. The odds would change with every spin of the wheel, right? For example, there are 18 black numbers, so the odds of winning a bet on black are 18/38. If you removed one of the black numbers after black hit, the odds of winning the same bet would be reduced to 17/38.
It doesn’t take a math genius to understand how you could use this information to your advantage.
But that’s exactly what happens with a blackjack deck. Once a card is dealt, it’s gone, and the composition of the deck has changed. This is how card counters make money. They use a heuristic system to estimate how favorable the deck is to the player.
Some might have trouble getting their head around this idea, but it becomes simpler if you think of it this way. You get paid out 3 to 2 if you hit a natural “21” right? All other bets pay out at even money, so getting a natural blackjack is where a blackjack player makes his money.
But what are your odds of being dealt a blackjack if all four of the aces in the deck have already been dealt? They become 0, right? If the deck has 0 aces in it, and you need an ace and a face or ten to get the 3 to 2 payout, then the house edge increases considerably.
The same holds true for the tens, but there are more of them in a deck. And the reverse of this is true. As the lower cards are dealt, the ratio of tens and aces becomes more favorable. So the card counter raises his bet sizes to take advantage of the higher chance of getting a bigger payout.
Strategy versus Pure Chance
Another aspect of blackjack that’s different from roulette is the ability for the player to affect the house edge by making smart decisions. (The house edge is the percentage of each wager that the casino expects to win over the long run.)
In roulette, the house edge is fixed, regardless of what decisions you make. On an American wheel, you face a house edge of 5.26%. On a European wheel, you face a house edge of 2.70%. No decisions that you make can change this number.
On the other hand, there are multiple decision points in a blackjack hand. You could increase the house edge to 100% by hitting every hand until you bust, for example. (Most players are smarter than that, though.)
Smart blackjack players use something called “basic strategy” to make their decisions. Basic strategy provides the mathematically best play in every situation that might come up. It’s generally easy to memorize.
The difference between using basic strategy and just playing your hunches is significant. Game conditions vary, but generally speaking, if you use correct basic strategy, you can reduce the house edge to between 0.5% and 1%. Players who don’t know basic strategy face a house edge of 4% to 5%.
If you like making decisions that affect your outcome, and you want to play a game where you can get edge by an advantage maneuver like counting cards, skip the roulette table. Play blackjack instead.
On the other hand, if that sounds like too much trouble, roulette can be a lot of fun. It’s not a sucker bet, no matter what anyone tells you–unless you buy into some loony roulette system or superstition.
Wagers per Hour
Another difference that has a practical effect on a player is how many wagers per hour happen at the table in the two games. You can estimate how much money you’ll expect to lose per hour if you multiply the size of your wager by the house edge and multiplying that by the number of wagers you make per hour.
Roulette is a relatively leisurely game. If you’re playing at a table with five other players, you’re only going to be seeing 35 spins per hour. If you only place a single wager per spin, you can easily estimate your average hourly loss.
Suppose you’re betting $5 a spin. The house edge is 5.26%. So you can expect to lose about 26.3 cents per spin. You can expect to lose a little over $9 per hour at that rate.
Of course, with fewer players at the roulette table, you can expect to see more wagers per hour. If it’s just you and the dealer, for example, you can expect to see 100 or so spins per hour, which will triple your expected hourly loss.
Blackjack is a faster-paced game. If you’re playing blackjack at a table with 5 other players, you can expect to see 60 hands per hour. If you’re playing with perfect basic strategy (1% house edge) at $5 per hand, you can expect to lose a nickel per hand. That’s just $3 per hour. Even though you’re putting almost twice the money into action per hour, your entertainment is costing you even less.
Does that make blackjack better than roulette? That depends on your personality. Do you like a leisurely, elegant game? Do you prefer not to have to think too much when gambling? Then roulette is better than roulette—for you.
On the other hand, if you like card games and enjoy the challenge of making correct decisions, blackjack is more likely to be suited to your personality.
Blackjack Table Odds
The pros and cons of each game are all based on what you prefer as a gambler.